The point being, Purdue has a lot to prove in this game. They're looking to knock off their bitter rival, much improved from last year, in order to solidify a legitimate claim to get an at-large bid for the tournament. Doing it on their court gives them an inherent boost, as it does with almost any team in the Big Ten. A loss to Indiana on Saturday would damage Purdue's chances of making the tournament, although I think they're good enough to make the tournament even with a loss to Indiana this weekend.
On the other hand, this game as a lot of bonus implications for IU as well. As many Purdue fans are quick to point out, IU has only won two road games in the Tom Crean era, and both of those were against Penn State. Obviously, IU has been through some very trying times, but they have lost many winnable games not only this year, but in the past too (Michigan State last year immediately comes to mind). The players and Crean himself have to prove that they can win a road game in the Big Ten, and Mackey Arena provides the most hostile environment IU could ever hope to play in. A win in West Lafayette would give the Hoosiers some much needed confidence going into the rest of the season and the tournament, if they are able to make it.
For the first time in a long time, these teams are pretty evenly matched. They're evenly matched, but Purdue doesn't have that low post presence that IU has in Cody Zeller. Hummel is their big man, but at 6'8, 215, he is significantly smaller than Zeller's 6'11, 230 pound frame. Hummel's advantage is that he's a fifth-year senior. He knows how to win basketball games. Zeller, as a freshman, is very talented, but that lack of experience could come back to bite him. It will be interesting to see if Matt Painter decides to play Hummel on Zeller or if he decides to go bigger with, say, Travis Carroll. I personally think Hummel is strong enough defensively that he can at least contain Zeller, but I'm not a Big Ten basketball coach, so what do I really know?
The X factor for Purdue is probably going to be Lewis Jackson. Jackson is very undersized in terms of height at 5'9, but he is one of the quickest guys in the Big Ten, and possibly the country. He can drive to the line so fast that his height, although still a factor, is not as big a factor as it could be.
So how does IU contain this problem? My solution would be to always have either Victor Oladipo or Remy Abell guarding him. Those are arguably the two quickest defenders for the Hoosiers, and maybe the two best. If Zeller is on Hummel (and if he's not, Watford will be), then stopping Jackson needs to be IU's second highest priority. If he is scoring points, then Purdue's chances of winning skyrocket. If he isn't scoring, then IU has a better shot of winning.
In addition to stopping Hummel and Jackson, IU needs to focus on preventing Purdue from making three-pointers as much as possible. Purdue has many capable shooters on their team (I like to say that Purdue has Robbie Hummel, Lewis Jackson, and then 9 white guys who can shoot threes, even though this is not really accurate), and if guys like DJ Byrd are connecting from long range all night, then Purdue will probably win. Given IU's past this season in allowing three-pointers in bunches, this should be a point of concern for the Hoosiers. But if they can step up their intensity on defense and prevent threes, then I like IU's chances.
Offensively, IU has to run their offense through Cody Zeller. Now, this does not mean give Zeller the ball and have him lay it in (although that would be nice). But if IU is to win this game, Zeller has to be on his game. He has to play well enough for Purdue to pay extra attention to him. If Zeller is effective in the paint, that may force double teams on him, which can lead to open threes. If IU is hitting threes all game, they have a very good chance of winning. I guess you could say Zeller is "the X factor" for that reason. But if only Zeller is playing well, IU won't win. They need guys like Christian Watford and Jordan Hulls to step up. They need Will Sheehey back, and they need Victor Oladipo to continue playing like he has the past couple of games.
This is going to be a very interesting game. For the first time since the Eric Gordon era, both teams have more to play for than just bragging rights within the state. Both are looking to solidify themselves as national tournament participants, and both are looking to prove that they are the best team in Indiana. Rivalry games are always fun, and this one should not disappoint.
